Research

Selected publications, working papers, and recent presentations documenting ongoing work on fiscal policy, innovation, and inclusive growth.

Publications

Publications

Crypto-assets, corruption, and capital controls: Cross-country correlations

M. Alnasaa, N. Gueorguiev, J. Honda, P. Mauro, K. Primus, D. Rozhkov, E. Imamoglu

Empirical investigation of the factors underlying the growing usage of crypto-assets is in its infancy, owing to data limitations. We present a simple cross-country analysis drawing on recently released survey-based data and explore the correlation of crypto-asset usage with indicators of corruption, capital controls, a history of high inflation, and other factors. We find that crypto-asset usage is significantly and positively associated with corruption and capital controls, supporting the case for regulating crypto-assets, including know-your-customer approaches, as opposed to taking a laissez-faire stance.

Economics Letters · Volume 215 · 2022

Publications

Income inequality measures and economic growth channels

R. Blotevogel, K. Moriyama, B. Sarr, E. Imamoglu

This paper shows that the choice of inequality measure has a first-order impact on estimated empirical relationships. Depending on the indicator chosen, the estimated role of inequality in the transmission channels to economic growth varies and becomes difficult to pin down with confidence. We run analyses with six inequality measures—consistent over time and across countries but based on distinct income definitions—and demonstrate that measurement differences exert a significant impact on estimated relationships, often larger than the effect of switching between indices. When allowing for measurement uncertainty, the distinction between short- and long-run effects of inequality also becomes empirically less relevant, and no unique structural relationship emerges.

Journal of Macroeconomics · Volume 72 · 2022

Working Papers

Working Papers

Crypto, Corruption, and Capital Controls: Cross-Country Correlations

M. Alnasaa, N. Gueorguiev, J. Honda, P. Mauro, K. Primus, D. Rozhkov, E. Imamoglu

Empirical investigation of the factors underlying the growing usage of crypto-assets draws on survey-based data to examine correlations with governance quality, capital controls, and macroeconomic histories. We find that crypto-asset usage is significantly and positively associated with higher perceptions of corruption and more intensive capital controls, supporting the case for regulatory approaches such as know-your-customer requirements.

IMF Working Paper No. 22/60 · 2022

Working Papers

Measuring Income Inequality and Implications for Economic Transmission Channels

E. Imamoglu, R. Blotevogel, K. Moriyama, B. Sarr

We study the channels that transmit the effects of inequality to economic growth and show that the role of inequality varies with the indicator selected. Analyses with six methodologically distinct inequality measures reveal that measurement differences exert a first-order impact on estimated relationships, often larger than switching between Gini coefficients and Top10 income shares. Transmission channels can react in opposite directions for a given indicator, making the net growth effect difficult to determine, and relationships shift over time and in fragile states.

IMF Working Paper No. 20/164 · 2020

Working Papers

How to Design a Fiscal Strategy in a Resource-Rich Country

E. Imamoglu, O. Basdevant, J. Hooley

This How to Note provides operational guidance for policymakers and IMF teams on designing or revising fiscal strategies in resource-rich countries. It addresses the opportunities and stabilization challenges created by resource revenues and helps policymakers analyze trade-offs associated with alternative fiscal paths to select strategies tailored to country-specific circumstances.

IMF How-To Note No. 2021/001 · 2021

Working Papers

How to Design a Fiscal Strategy in a Resource-Rich Country: Guidance Note on the Excel Template (v1.0)

Fiscal Affairs Department, IMF

Companion guidance describing how to use the Fiscal Affairs Department's Excel-based template that accompanies the How to Note on designing fiscal strategies in resource-rich countries. The template generates simulations of fiscal policy dynamics to visualize trade-offs and assess sensitivity to macroeconomic assumptions, helping teams identify appropriate fiscal strategies.

IMF Guidance Note · 2021

Presentations

Presentations

How to Design a Fiscal Strategy for Resource-Rich Countries

IMF FAD Seminar Series · Washington DC

Discusses institutional frameworks that help resource-dependent economies manage volatility and invest wisely.

February 26, 2020

Presentations

Is It Possible to Pin Down the Inequality-Growth Relationship?

IMF FAD Seminar Series · Washington DC

Explores empirical hurdles in establishing a robust link between inequality and growth outcomes.

March 4, 2020